Reason or believe - part 2

The future of West Ham united.
(now how is that for a topic?)

There seem to be 3 major angles of this story:
1. BG will sell
2. BG will not sell
3. West Ham will go bust.

The fundamentals we need to be able to do some predictions seem to me to be in place.
Let’s start with number 3, will West Ham go bust?

I think one must actually widen this to do the assessment.
The fundamental question must be: is there a possibility to run a PL club with a profit?
If the answer to that one is yes, West Ham will no doubt find an owner (the interested reader MUST read THIS masterpiece to get a picture of the financial possibilities of West Ham United).

If the answer on the other hand is no, West Ham will have all chances of going bust, in its own right so to say.
What I mean by that is, regardless of the present financial situation at the club, West Ham may (and this is important), along with several other PL clubs, go through a period of huge economic problems. That would be the “economic football bubble” bursting. However I find this unlikely. I will be back with a designated post later.

So, granted that there is no world wide football bubble bursting, West Ham have every possibility to be a very economically interesting club.

Moral: Since West Ham likely is good business in a longer run an owner can be found and the club wouldn’t have to go bankrupt!


Now back to angles 1 and 2.

BG’s focus has never been and will never be football, even as a business.
He has gone bust before and what he showed us then is that after some time of consolidation he uses his available funds to go back into Icelandic banking.

There is no doubt in my mind that he will try to do that again and everything he does now, including what he does with the Club, is to facilitate such a comeback, if nothing else to help his son to rise to the cream of Icelandic business again.

West Ham may be a good deal in the long run but not on a shorter time scale. So, BG will try to free as much money (cash) as possible, permitting him to reinvest in the banking industry.

Moral:BG will sell sooner rather than later!

So the news to be found now is who will be the buyer!

The so called "Dubai group" (Zabeel or Dubai Sovereign Wealth, controlled by Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum), has resurfaced as one candidate, as The Guardian stated today, but there are several other possibilities including the BIG Indian businessman I presented to you before.

Since I think the Club is economically viable, there is no absolute reason that the buyers must be of the kind that want a club as an accessory. A BG-like person may person may still appear, allthough this businessman-group may be hard on cash (and credit) at the moment.
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