In an attempt to look at our survival hopes I tried to make some "until end of season prediction" early in January. To read that post click here. I tried to make the prediction as realistic as possible which means that I have us down to wins at home vs teams on the second half of the table and losses vs teams on the first half of the table away. We´ve dropped some points that should´ve been in the bag but if we manage to follow the prediction I think it´ll be enough for staying clear of the relegation zone.
Things have changed since I made the predictions in January but I won´t change anything. At least our chances to make it now should be slightly better. Unfortunately we lost some points the last two games and I believe it was down to failing to have our strikers fit (and no new strikers) and raring to go. Don´t get me wrong, Nouble did as well as anyone could expect from a 18 year old youngster but we shouldn´t have been in a situation where we have to depend on him during these circumstances. I do think he´s a great prospect and I´m sure his time will come. Sooner rather than later!
We lost another two points during the weekend. Blackburn at home is a game where we should expect to get all of them. The last few years this has been a team we usually beat and knowing their "not to good" away form this was a three pointer. I wasn´t able to watch the game but according to what I´ve read about it we weren´t particularly close to the three points. A weak game from our boys. That won´t do during the coming months.
Thouhg one should have in mind that Blackburn these days are managed by one of our real bogey managers. If I´m not mistaken he´s played us 15 times since becoming manager and only lost three times. One of those were a FA-cup replay which ended up in extra time during our run in to the final vs Liverpool. The goal difference in these games adds up to 10 - 19. His teams really plays a way that doesn´t suit West Ham even though it´s become a bit better since joined Blackburn were he hasn´t managed a win yet. Three straight draws is what he´s managed.
Now, could we afford this drop of points? Well, we´ll still manage but the line we´re walking is getting thinner and thinner. We couldn´t afford to drop many more now...
(Game: Prediction, Outcome, +/- from the game, +/- overall)
WHU - Wolves: 3p (postponed)
Aston Villa - WHU: 0p, 1p, 1p, 1p
Portsmouth - WHU: 3p, 1p, -2p, -1p
WHU - Blackburn: 3p, 1p, -2p, -3p
Total January: 9p (6p), 3p, -3p, -3p (one game postponed)
Burnley - WHU: 3p
WHU - Birmingham: 1p
WHU - Hull: 3p
Manchester United - WHU: 0p
Total February: 7p
WHU - Bolton: 1p
Chelsea - WHU: 0p
Arsenal - WHU: 0p
WHU - Stoke: 3p
Total March: 4p
Everton - WHU: 0p
WHU - Sunderland: 1p
Liverpool - WHU: 0p
WHU - Wigan: 3p
Total April: 4p
Fulham - WHU: 1p
WHU - Manchester City: 0p
Total May: 1p
(Prediction, +/- according to prediction, pointing towards x amount of points)
Total 2009: 18p
Total 2010: 25p, -3p, 22p
Total 09/10: 43p, -3p, 40p